Report: Canada’s Carbon Emissions Increased in 2021, Remained Below Pre-COVID Levels

According to the independent Canadian Climate Institute’s new report, Canada’s carbon emissions rose in 2021 when compared to the preceding year, yet still stayed below pre-COVID levels.

Dave Sawyer, head economist of the institute, reported that the “good news” is that emissions did not increase after the COVID-19 restrictions were removed.

“It’s roughly a good news story that, yes, there is more activity coming out of COVID, but policy drivers and market drivers are working to keep emissions down,” he said. “They are lower than they would have been otherwise.”

The institute anticipates that Canada’s emissions in 2021 at 691 megatonnes, which is an increase from the year before but still less than what it was before the pandemic at 738 megatonnes.

Early Estimate of National Emissions for 2021

The information utilized is drawn from sources such as Statistics Canada and the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre at Simon Fraser University, taking into account factors such as economic output from different industries and the amount of oil and gas being produced. The Institute also considers trends in energy conservation and emissions reduction, such as the implementation of carbon pricing, to make their estimate.

Despite the fact that Canada was not completely reopened until 2021 due to pandemic lockdowns, the institute’s analysis showed that the country’s economic growth outpaced its emissions, suggesting that Canada can grow its economy without significantly exacerbating its emissions.

According to the report that the number of emissions per unit of GDP had lowered by 2% in 2021 compared to the year before.

The new predictions are released before the official data from Environment and Climate Change Canada, which are expected to be released in the spring.

In order for Canada to achieve its climate goals, Sawyer claimed that more precise predictions would allow for “course correction” and “early action” by governments.

The institute has expressed its desire to make its yearly data available eight months before the federal government’s report. Therefore, their 2022 report is expected to be out around August 2023.

The Canadian Climate institute has determined that emissions from all sectors, with the exception of oil and gas, transport and buildings, have dropped below 2005 levels, which is the year used to set Canada’s 2030 climate targets.