Polls Indicate a Slim Majority of Albertans Support Oil and Gas Emissions Cap

Two recent polls suggest that a slim majority of Albertans agree with a cap on carbon emissions from the oil and gas sector.

Following Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s warning to Ottawa last month not to test the “resolve” of Albertans who disagree with such measures, two separate polls were conducted simultaneously with identical questions.

“(The results) conflict with the narrative that our current government is telling Albertans and Canadians that Albertans do not support this kind of action,” stated Joe Vipond from the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment, who conducted the polls. “Our polling suggests that’s not correct.”

The Canadian government has stated that they intend to impose an emissions cap for oil and gas this fall. Smith has promised to oppose any such legislation, claiming it would be an enforced production cap

More than 800 residents of Alberta participated in online surveys conducted by polling firms Leger and Research Co. between August 25 and August 27.

The Canadian Research Insights Council has stated that internet polls cannot be given a margin of error since they do not randomly sample the population. The average margin of error for a survey with 1,000 respondents is 3.1 percent.

Although neither pollster knew about the other’s action, both had the same questions, such as “Would you support or oppose setting a nationwide emissions cap on oil and gas carbon pollution in Canada?”

Leger reported that 57% of respondents were in favour of it. The results from Research Co. were 62% in favour.

“The numbers for each of the samples are pretty much bang on,” he said. “I feel good because everything is similar,” said Research Co.’s Mario Canseco, adding that rough agreement provides more trust in the results.

Political scientist Jared Wesley of the University of Alberta, who has been running a long-term surveying study on Alberta called Common Ground, was not surprised by the results of the two surveys.

“Most Albertans feel that way, but they don’t think the average Albertan feels that way. There’s a false sense of social reality,” he said

“Until that changes, until people’s perceptions of public opinion catches up with public opinion, there’s not much incentive for politicians to change their rhetoric.”

Nonetheless, 55% of Albertans showed some form of concern.

Environmental regulations that might harm Alberta’s oilpatch do not have as much support among Albertans as they do among residents of other provinces.

In a statement made on August 30, Smith was cited as saying, “Under no scenario will the government of Alberta permit the implementation of the proposed federal electricity regulations or contemplated oil and gas emissions cap. We would strongly suggest the federal government refrain from testing our government’s or Albertans’ resolve in this regard.”