Canada’s Oil Production To Peak Seven Years Earlier Than Expected

Over the next ten years, Canada’s oil output will rise to 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd), seven years earlier than previously predicted, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), which made the announcement Thursday.

After the pandemic-related crash last year, the CER predicted that more close investment in oil production would help it grow earlier than originally expected, before it begins to decline to 4.8 million bpd by 2050.

The expected peak production level has not changed from last year’s estimate. The country’s current output is 5 million barrels per day.

As a result of the huge oil sands deposits in northern Alberta, nearly two-thirds of Canada’s oil production is expected to remain stable over the next three decades, despite the low oil prices and increasingly unclear climate policies.

CER’s chief economist, Darren Christine said in a conference “The resilience is really owing to the unique nature of the oil sands, once they are built they are very long-lived and operating costs are quite low,”

“The vast majority of oil sands production we have in 2050 is coming from facilities that are already producing today.”

According to the CER’s “Evolving Policies” scenario, carbon emissions from global energy systems are set to continue to be reduced at a similar rate to that seen recently.

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CER) predicts that oil prices will rise, and Canadian production will rise faster, until it reaches a peak of 6.7 million bpd in 2040.

Natural gas production in Canada is expected to remain close to current levels of 15.5 billion cubic feet a day (bcfd) for the next two decades, before declining to 13.1 bcfd by 2050 in the central scenario.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is expected to play an increasingly important role as energy efficiency continues to improve in Canada.

According to the regulator, without carbon capture and storage to extract emissions, Canada’s fossil fuel use will fall 62% by 2050. The country’s overall use of fossil fuels is expected to drop by 40% by then, but the regulator said the country can’t achieve net-zero emissions unless it makes more significant changes.

Original source material for this article taken from here