B.C. Could Become Canada’s Top Natural Gas Supplier by 2028

By 2028, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) expects B.C. to surpass Alberta as the top source of Canadian Natural Gas.

According to the “Canada’s Energy Future 2021” report, the liquids-rich Montney Shale deposit could account for three-quarters of Canadian gas production by 2050.

CER scenarios in which supply leadership changes hands in 2028:

• “current policies” that assume existing prevailing markets and regulations.
• “evolving” conditions foreshadowed by emerging economic and government trends.

From 5.7 Bcf/d in 2021, current policy forecasts BC natural gas output at 8 Bcf/d in 2028. During the same period, Alberta supply would fall 20% to 7.9 Bcf/d from 9.8 Bcf/d in 2021. By 2050, BC will have 13.7 Bcf/d and Alberta 7.9 Bcf/d.

In the evolving conditions case, BC gas production would reach 7.6 Bcf/d in 2028 and 8.3 Bcf/d in 2050. Meanwhile, Alberta’s output would decrease to 7.5 Bcf/d in 2028 and 4.6 Bcf/d in 2050.

“Current policies scenario projections are driven by assumptions of higher prices, a lack of future domestic and global climate action” and higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes, said CER. 

For the next two decades, the evolving conditions outlook projects national gas output at 15.5 Bcf/d.

“After 2040, with LNG exports assumed to stay flat, total production begins to decline, falling to 13.1 Bcf/d by 2050,” said CER.

Crude Oil Remains Prominence

Both CER scenarios see oil as a viable source of energy for Canada. Alberta would remain the country’s top supplier, with at least four-fifths of output exported to the US and, increasingly, abroad.

Oil output in Canada would rise from 5 million b/d in 2021 to 6.7 million b/d in 2040. It would stay higher, possibly fueling new pipeline proposals and faster rail deliveries.

Canadian oil production would rise to 5.8 million b/d in the early 2030s but fall to 4.8 million b/d by 2050, a 4% decline from 2021.

“Canadian crude oil production levels are resilient through to 2050 despite the evolving policies scenario’s relatively low prices,” falling from a peak annual average of $68/bbl to $40/bbl, “and steadily more ambitious climate policies,” said CER.

“This largely stems from the nature of the oil sands facilities, which are long-lived and have low operating costs once built. Throughout the projection period, the vast majority of oil sands production is from facilities that are producing today.”

The agency’s oil and gas scenarios, plus six more for electricity, are only “a baseline for discussing Canada’s energy future today and do not represent the CER’s predictions of what will take place in the future.”

The CER warned people to take caution when interpreting a newly established global target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Canada, like other countries that have adopted “Net-Zero” as an accounting ideal, has yet to clearly define or translate what it means in terms of actual regulations.

“Over the past several years, there has been an increasing body of scenario analysis on what net-zero by 2050 means for the global energy system,” noted CER.

“The range…is large,” said CER. “For global oil demand, these scenarios have a range of 37% more to 73% lower compared to current levels by 2050. For natural gas, global demand ranges from 68% more to 54% less relative to current levels by 2050.”

“Over the past several years, there has been an increasing body of scenario analysis on what net-zero by 2050 means for the global energy system,” stated CER.

“The range…is large,” said CER. “For global oil demand, these scenarios have a range of 37% more to 73% lower compared to current levels by 2050. For natural gas, global demand ranges from 68% more to 54% less relative to current levels by 2050.”

The regulator also said that, over the presented period to 2050, “it is likely that developments beyond normal expectations, such as geopolitical events or technological breakthroughs, will occur. Also, new information will become available, and trends, policies, and technologies will continue to evolve.”

Original source material for this article taken from here